Software Nerd

Wednesday, August 20, 2008

Long Bets

I came across web-site called "Long Bets". The idea of the site is that people can make a bet about something happening/not happening, 2 years or more in the future. The stakes are held in escrow, and given to a charity named by the winner.

The bettors don;t just bet; they're expected to provide a brief argument for their side. Also, the site allows membership, who can vote and discuss.

The largest stake is a $1 million bet between Warren Buffett and a money-manager. Mr. Buffett is betting that the stock market average will do better than a "fund of hedge funds" after fees/costs are accounted for.

Some bets have already been decided. In 2002, Dave Winder (a CEO) bet $2000 that "in a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site".

The site is like a less busy, more long-term version of a sites like inTrade.


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